October 12, 2009: Congratulations to Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson on winning the Prize, and for their tremendous contributions to our science. Congratulations also to


  1. Lin William Cong, Stanford Graduate School of Buisness,

  2. Jan Kozak, Harvard College,

  3. Adam Guren, Harvard University, and

  4. Yuan Zhu, Harvard University


for their tremendous achievement in predicting the prize. Each bet on Williamson. No one bet on Ostrom, so half of the pot goes to the few savvy hedgers who bet “No Correct Guess.”


October 11, 2009: Betting has closed. The winner will be announced here on Monday and paid shortly thereafter. $149 have been collected, along with a panel from the forthcoming economics comic book by Yoram Bauman. In the event of multiple winners, the panel will be given to a very lucky randomly selected winner. Bets not yet received are not included in the tally, but will be added to the pool as long as they are received by Tuesday and postmarked before yesterday. The leaders thus far, in percentage of the total dollar pot, are as follows.


  1. Robert Barro -10%

  2. John Taylor - 8%

  3. Paul Milgrom - 8%

  4. Jean Tirole - 6%

  5. Oliver Williamson - 6%

  6. Martin Weitzman - 6%

  7. Eugene Fama - 5%

  8. Richard Thaler - 5%

  9. Lars Hansen - 4%

  10. Paul Romer - 4%


In the interest of having a historical perspective, last year’s leaders were:


  1. Hansen - 14%

  2. Barro - 13%

  3. Fama - 8%

  4. P. Diamond - 6%

  5. Hart - 5%

  6. Sargent - 5%

  7. Feldstein - 3%

  8. Sims - 3%

  9. Thaler - 3%

  10. Bhagawati - 2%


September 29, 2009: On Monday, October 12 the Swedes will announce the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics.  While only some of you may hope to win this honor, all of you may hope to win a prize no less famous: the Nobel (Predictor) Prize.


HOW TO ENTER: Nominate who you think will win the 2009 Memorial Prize in Economics. Each name that you enter costs $1. You can also guess that no entrant will correctly guess the recipient(s). You can enter as many times for as many names you’d like.


To enter, simply input your details into the form online. You’ll need to write the name of each predicted recipient and the number of bets (dollars) you’re putting towards him or her. If you want to bet that no one will guess correctly just write “No Correct Guess” in one of the names. And no funny stuff—your bets will be disqualified and given to charity as per our unappealable discretion. Once you’re done with your entries, mail the sum of your bets IN CASH to


Tristan Reed, Littauer Center, Harvard University,

1875 Cambridge St, Cambridge MA 02138


We will post who the most popular choices are here on Sunday October 11.


RULES: Entries must be RECEIVED BEFORE 11:59 PM EST ON SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10. PAYMENTS MUST BE POSTMARKED NO LATER THAN THE SAME DATE. Economists in the Cambridge area can, if they prefer, place their entries and payments in Tristan Reed’s mailbox on the second floor of the Littauer Center. We are not responsible for missing cash under any circumstances.


All money collected will be divided between the winners of the pool. If there is one recipient of the prize, the payout will be divided among all those entrants who guessed correctly, with each of those correct guessers receiving a share in proportion to her/his share of the total number of bets placed on the prize recipient. If no one guesses correctly, the votes will be divided in the same fashion among those who entered "No Correct Guess." If there are n>1 recipients, exactly 1/n of the payout will be allocated to each and distributed as per the rules for one recipient.


This contest is open to any and all economists who wish to participate; please share with your friends, and good luck!



Tom Gole, Alex Peysakhovich, and Tristan Reed

2009 Pool Coordinators