2010 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics Pool
The 2011 version version of the pool is up and running!
October 11, 2010: Congratulations to Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides! In addition, a big round of applause goes to the many clever bettors sharing this year's pool.
  • 7 people bet on Peter Diamond: Pol Antras, Morris Chow, Adam Guren, Rezwan Haque, Simon Jaeger, Jan Kozak, Danny Yagan.
  • 1 person bet on Christopher Pissarides: Adam Guren.
  • No-one bet on Dale Mortensen, which means that the remaining third of the pot goes to the 14 bets on "No Correct Guess:" Morris Chow, Aubrey Clark, Lin William Cong (x2), Adam Guren, Sam Himel, Sonia Jaffe, David W. Johnson, Zhenyu Lai, Paul Novosad, Mikkel Plagborg-Moller, Tristan Reed, Kentaro Tomomeda, Jing Xia.
The star predictor is Adam Guren, who gets a piece of all three thirds. Winnings will be sent out at the end of the week. Thank you all for playing!
October 10, 2010: And the betting window has closed! Late postal submissions will be permitted as long as the letters were postmarked before Saturday, October 9. So far, the pool has swollen to a healthy $165 worth of bets, with the market prediction turning out as follows.
  • Robert Barro - 10.3%
  • Martin Weitzman - 5.5%
  • Paul Romer - 4.9%
  • Jean Tirole - 4.9%
  • Peter Diamond - 4.2%
  • Robert Shiller - 4.2%
  • Alberto Alesina - 3.6%
  • Lars Peter Hansen - 3.6%
  • Paul Milgrom - 3.6%
  • Richard Thaler - 3.6%
Leading by a wide margin, Daron Acemoglu is the favorite to take home the Prize in 2020. The betting champion(s) will be announced on this site tomorrow afternoon. All winnings will be mailed out by the end of next week. Meanwhile, curious souls may parse through predictions from previous years.
September 27, 2010: Every year in early October the Nobel Prize Committee honors a few select individuals who have made tremendous contributions to science and society. Shortly afterwards they hand out a prize in Economics. Continuing an annual tradition, the Harvard Department of Economics is hosting the world’s most accurate prediction market—The Nobel Pool. This year the prize is announced on Monday, October 11 2010, so fire up STATA and send us your best estimate of the outcome.
HOW TO ENTER: Nominate who you think will win the 2010 Memorial Prize in Economics. Each name that you enter costs $1. You can also guess that no entrant will correctly guess the recipient(s). You can enter as many times for as many names you’d like.

To enter, simply input your details on this form. You’ll need to write the name of each predicted recipient and the number of bets (dollars) you’re putting towards him or her. If you want to bet that no one will guess correctly, just write “No Correct Guess” in one of the names. And no funny stuff (animal spirits strictly forbidden!)—your bets will be disqualified and given to charity as per our unappealable discretion. Mail the printed form and the sum of your bets IN CASH to

Aubrey Clark, Littauer Center, Harvard University,
1875 Cambridge St, Cambridge MA 02138

We will post who the most popular choices are here on Sunday, October 10.

RULES: Entries and payments must be RECEIVED BEFORE 11:59 PM EST ON SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9. Economists in the Cambridge area can, if they prefer, hand in their entries and payments in Brenda Piquet's office on the 2nd floor of the Littauer Center or in Assaf Romm’s mailbox in HBS (Wyss 2nd floor). We are not responsible for missing cash under any circumstances.

All money collected will be divided between the winners of the pool. If there is one recipient of the prize, the payout will be divided among all those entrants who guessed correctly, with each of those correct guessers receiving a share in proportion to her/his share of the total number of bets placed on the prize recipient. If no one guesses correctly, the votes will be divided in the same fashion among those who entered "No Correct Guess." If there are n>1 recipients, exactly 1/n of the payout will be allocated to each and distributed as per the rules for one recipient.
This contest is open to any and all economists who wish to participate (except these guys); please share with your friends, and good luck!
Aubrey Clark, Mikkel Plagborg-Moller and Assaf Romm
2010 Pool Coordinators