Wildfires and agricultural fires:
Links with atmospheric chemistry.
Will warmer temperatures or drier conditions increase wildfire frequency
in the future? If so, what are the consequences for regional air quality?
What are the health consequences of agricultural fires in Equatorial Asia?
Do agricultural fires in India influence urban air quality downwind?
Wildfires and agricultural fires can have large impacts on
air quality and atmospheric composition.
For example, fires in Indonesia, used routinely to clear land for crops, can
severely degrade air quality in megacities downwind.
Through their effects on fires, both climate change and land-use
decisions can have unexpected consequences for air quality.
See also the following section,
Consequences of changing air quality for human health.
Kim, P.S., D.J. Jacob, L.J. Mickley, S.N. Koplitz, M.E. Marlier, R. DeFries,
S.S. Myers, and B.N. Chew,
Sensitivity of population smoke exposure to fire locations in Equatorial Asia,
Atmos. Environ., 102, 11-17, 2015.
Koplitz, S. N., L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier, J. J. Buonocore, P. S. Kim,
T. Liu, M. P. Sulprizio, R. S. DeFries, D. J. Jacob, J. Schwartz, and S. S. Myers,
Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September-October 2015:
A new tool for fire management to reduce downwind smoke exposure in the future,
submitted to Environ. Res. Lett. , 2016.
Marlier, M., R. Defries, P.S. Kim, S.N. Koplitz, D.J. Jacob, L.J. Mickley,
B.A. Margono, and S.S. Myers,
Fire emissions and regional air quality impacts from fires in oil palm,
timber, and logging concessions in Indonesia,
Env. Res. Let., 10, 085005, 2015.
Marlier, M., R. Defries, P.S. Kim, D.L.A. Gaveau, S.N. Koplitz, D.J. Jacob, L.J. Mickley,
B.A. Margono, S.S. Myers,
Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan,
Environ. Res. Letters, 10, 054010, 2015.
Marlier, M., R. Defries, D. Pennington, E. Nelson, E.M. Ordway, J. Lewis,
S.N. Koplitz, and L.J. Mickley,
Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra,
Global Change Biology, 21, 345-362, 2015.
Yue, X., L.J. Mickley, J.A. Logan, R.C. Hudman, M. Val Martin, and R.M. Yantosca,
Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: Consequences for ozone air quality,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10033-10055, 2015.
Yue, X., L.J. Mickley, and J.A. Logan,
Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-21st century,
Clim. Dyn., 43, 1973-1991, 2014.
Yue, X., L.J. Mickley, J.A. Logan, and J.O. Kaplan,
Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol
concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century,
Atmos. Env., 77, 767-780, 2013.
New York Times,
Wall Street Journal.
Support: EPA, NASA, Rockefeller Foundation
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Consequences of changing air quality for human health
How will the frequency of "smoke waves" change in the western United States in a warming climate,
and what are the consequences for acute health issues?
Will the combination of increasing heatwaves and changing pollution in future decades
adversely affect human health?
How does pollution from fossil fuel combustion affect human health worldwide?
Given recent and sometimes dramatic trends in emissions, climate change, and
fire frequency, the atmosphere is in flux.
We collaborate with biostatisticians and epidemiologists to probe the health consequences of
changing air quality in the United States and elsewhere.
See also the section on
Wildfires and agricultural fires above.
Lee, W.-C., L. Shen, P.J. Catalano, L.J. Mickley, P. Koutrakis,
Effects of future temperature change on PM2.5 infiltration in the
Greater Boston area,
Atmos. Env., 150, 98-105, 2017.
Liu, J.C., A. Wilson, L.J. Mickley, K. Ebisu, M.P. Sulprizio, Y. Wang, R.D. Peng,
X. Yue, F. Dominici, and M.L. Bell,
Who among the elderly is most vulnerable to exposure and health risks of
PM2.5 from wildfire smoke?
American Journal of Epidemiology, in press.
Liu, J.C., A. Wilson, L.J. Mickley, F. Dominici, K. Ebisu, Y. Wang,
M.P. Sulprizio, R.D. Peng, X. Yue, J.Y. Son, G.B. Anderson, and M.L. Bell,
Wildfire-specific fine particulate matter and risk of hospital admissions
in urban and rural counties,
Epidemiology, 28, 77-85, 2017.
Liu, J.C., L.J. Mickley, M.P. Sulprizio, X. Yue, R.D. Peng, F. Dominici,
and M.L. Bell,
Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change
in the western US, Env. Res. Let., 11, 124018, 2016.
Liu, J.C., L.J. Mickley, M.P. Sulprizio, F. Dominici, X. Yue, K Ebisul, G.B. Anderson,
R.F.A. Khan, M.A. Bravo, and M.L. Bell,
Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under climate change,
Climatic Change, 138, 655-666, 2016.
NASA Image of the Day.
Support: NASA, NIH, Rockefeller Foundation, Wallace Global Fund.
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Recent trends in key atmospheric species
As the observational record in the modern era lengthens, we can learn more
about the mechanisms and sources of key atmospheric species and their changes over time.
We can diagnose the impacts of policy measures, including unintended consequences,
and detect shifts in pollution sources.
Hickman, J.E., S. Wu, L.J. Mickley, and M.T. Lerdau,
Kudzu (Pueraria montana) invasion doubles emissions of nitric oxide and increases ozone pollution,
Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 107, (22) 10115-1-119, 2010.
Marais, E. A., D. J. Jacob, J. R. Turner, and L. J. Mickley,
Evidence of long-term decrease of biogenic secondary organic aerosol
in response to SO2 emission controls,
Environ. Res. Lett., 2017.
Zhu, L., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, E. A. Marais, J. Sheng,
L. Hu, G. Gonzalez Abad, and K. Chance,
Long-term (2005-2014) trends in formaldehyde (HCHO) columns across North America
as seen by the OMI satellite instrument:
Evidence of changing emissions of volatile organic compounds,
Geophys. Res. Lett., in review.
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Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group webpage.