How states assess the capabilities of their adversaries and rivals is of paramount importance to the theory and practice of international relations.  This paper presents a framework for understanding why states overestimate the capabilities of their adversaries.  Three types of overestimation are presented, consisting of conscious/rational, erroneous and biased overestimation.  In order to demonstrate the phenomenon of biased overestimation in international politics, the case of the “Missile Gap” (1957-1961) controversy in the United States is examined.

1. ‣Assessing Capabilities in International Politics: Biased Overestimation and the Case of the Imaginary ‘Missile Gap’” Journal of Strategic Studies 32 no. 1 (2009): 115-147.