Alastair Iain Johnston
416C Coolidge Hall
Office Hours: Tuesday 4:15-6:15
617.496.3965
johnston@fas.harvard.edu
The aim of this course is to analyze the current state of play in Sino-US relations using three basic theoretical frameworks or approaches -- power transition, interdependence and socialization frameworks. Each of these frameworks has different expectations about the likelihood and type of conflict between the US and China. Each starts off from different assumptions about the nature of international politics and about the interests of states. There are no prerequisites for this course so I donít assume you have had any background in international relations theory or Chinese history and politics. The basic themes of the course are as follows: What does it mean to say that states have competing or cooperative interests? Should we expect Sino-US relations to become more conflictual as Chinaís relative power grows? Or might we expect relations to become more cooperative as Chinese power grows? How might we explain these alternative possibilities? These questions will be asked as we go through a range of issues in Sino-US relations: security in the Asia-Pacific region; nonproliferation; trade and economic relations; human rights, among others.
There is no one textbook that covers all these issues. The readings, therefore, come from a range of printed and electronic sources. Where possible I have tried to provide official and unofficial US and Chinese primary materials to give you a flavor of the kinds of language and interactions that characterize the relationship in the 1990s. The following book is available for purchase from the COOP.
1. What are the interests at stake as Chinese and American leaders have defined them?
2. How important/salient are these interests (e.g. what sorts of trade-offs are possible among different interests?; What are the constraints on changing the interests/positions? of each side? (domestic political, ideological, etc).
3. Whose interests are at stake? Are these ënationalí or more parochial political interests?
The required readings are, of course,
required. The recommended readings are not required but are helpful for
following up on issues or details raised in the required readings. They
are also useful as a first start in building a bibliography for your research
paper.
Requirements:
1 short paper (5-6 pages) (25%) -- this paper will focus on understanding the conceptual arguments that are implicit (sometimes explicit) in many of the policy differences on Sino-US relations. It will be due on March 11. I will provide more details about this assignment in class.
1 research paper (about 20-25 pages) (50%) -- this paper will entail original research on some aspect of US-China relations to see whether the theoretical arguments about Sino-US conflict and cooperation are valid and useful. It will be due on May 8. I will provide more details about the paper in class.
Participation and short writing assignments (25%)
Students with Disabilities: Anyone in the class who has a disability that may require some modification in seating or class requirements please see me as soon as possible. The Student Disability Center at 20 Garden Street (496-8707) has additional information and resources which may be useful.
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Week 1 (Feb 4): Introduction:
the flavor of Sino-US Relations Today.
This week deals with an introduction
to course and with class organization matters. You donít have to do the
readings prior this session. But you must do them at some point soon after.
The readings and visual presentation this week will give you a flavor of
the range of views, arguments, and discourses used in both the US and China
to describe the evolving relationship
Required:
Rep. Rohrabacher on China and Panama Canal
CIA statement on Embassy Bombing
Peopleís Daily Commentator on US and on Nazi Germany
Li Xiguang, "The Inside Story of the Demonization of China" Contemporary Chinese Thought (Winter 1998-99) pp. 13-77 (CP)
Ming Zhan, "Public Images of the United States," in Yong Deng and Wang Fei-ling, In the Eyes of the Dragon (1999), pp. 141-158. (CP)
Luce Report on US public opinion and China, especially the data on pp.10-26, 29-31, 36-38.
Map
of China in Asia (please become familiar with key geographic and geo-political
information on this map)
Recommended
Steven M. teles "Public Opinion
and Interest Group Politics" in Robert S. Ross ed., After the Cold War:
Domestic Factors and US-China Relations (M.E. Sharpe, 1998) pp.40-69)
Week 2 (Feb 11) Some history
This week's reading provides an
inside history of the evolution of Sino-US relations from the first efforts
to 'normalize' the relationship in the early 1970s through to the major
crisis that erupted in the Taiwan Strait in 1996. What were some of the
major arguments on both sides for pursuing normalization? How have those
arguments evolved over time? Are commitments both sides made still valid
today, given the dramatic transformations in the international system (the
end of the Cold War) and in domestic politics (the open-door reforms in
China, democratization on Taiwan)?
Required
Patrick Tyler, A Great Wall
(1999)
Recommended
Robert Ross, Negotiating Cooperation: The United States and China, 1969-1989 (1995)
Andrew Nathan and Robert Ross, Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China's Search for Security (1997)
Harry Harding, A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972 (1992)
Patrick Tyler, A Great Wall
(1999)
Week 3 (Feb 25): Some theory:
structural conflict, interdependence, and socialization arguments
In this week we examine some of
the theoretical assumptions that underlie different arguments about the
evolving trends in Sino-US relations. In particular we look at power transition
arguments (which stress changes in relative power between the US and China);
economic interdependence arguments (which stress changes in levels of trade
and investment and the new interests that these create inside both societies);
and socialization arguments (which stress the impact of involvement in
international institutions on a state's definition of its interests). How
well do these theoretical arguments map onto policy positions taken by
elites in Washington and Beijing?
Required
Kenneth Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (1980) pp. 13-28 (CP)
Randall Schweller, "Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory" in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (1999) pp.1-31 (CP)
Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink "International Norm Dynamics and Political Change" International Organization 52:4 (Autumn 1998) pp. 887-917 (CP)
Michel Oksenberg and Elizabeth Economy,
"Introduction: China Joins the World" in Economy and Oksenberg, eds., China
Joins the World: Progress and Prospects (1999)
Recommended:
Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (1981)
Dale Copeland, "Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations" International Security 20:4 (Spring 1996) pp.5-41
Martha Finnemore, "Norms, Culture, and World Politics: Insights from Sociologyís Institutionalism" International Organization (Spring 1996)
Alastair Iain Johnston, "Treating Institutions as Social Environments" International Studies Quarterly (December 2001)
Jeffrey T. Checkel, "Social Construction
and Integration." Journal of European Public Policy 6 (December
1999).
Week 4 (March 4) Security Issues
I: Taiwan I
This week's readings introduce
some of the background to what is perhaps the most dangerous issue in US-China
relations -- the Taiwan question. How have American and Chinese definitions
of the interests at stake evolved over time? We will exam how both sides
have interpreted the key statements and agreements concerning the
Taiwan issue since 1972.
Required
Michel Oksenberg, "Taiwan, Tibet and HK in Sino-US Relations" in Ezra Vogel ed., Living with China (CP)
The three US-China communiques (Shanghai I (1972); Normalization (1979); Shanghai II (1982) (skim)
The Taiwan Relations Act (1979) (skim)
The Six Assurances (1982) (skim)
State Council Information Office "The Taiwan Question and the Reunification of China" (August 1993) (skim)
Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council (skim)
Map
of mainland China and Taiwan (please become familiar with the geographical
features and major place names on this map)
Recommended
Evan A. Feigenbaum, Change in Taiwan and Potential Adversity in the Strait (RAND Corporation, 1995)
Bernice Lee, "The Security Implications of the New Taiwan" Adelphi Papers No.331 (1999)
Chongpin Lin, "Beijing-Taibei: Dialectics in Post-Tiananmen Interactions" in David Shambaugh ed., Greater China: The Next Superpower? (1995) pp.118-152
Robert G. Sutter, "Domestic Politics
and the U.S.-China-Taiwan Triangle," in Robert S. Ross, After the Cold
War, pp. 70-106.
Week 5 (March 11) Security Issues
II: Taiwan II
In this week we will consider the
political and military implications of the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis for
Sino-US relations. Experts in both the US and China argue that unless the
Taiwan question is handled carefully, this is the one issue where direct
military conflict between US and Chinese forces is most likely. What are
the obstacles to political or military solutions that might meet the interests
of all three parties?
Required
Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (US House of Representatives) (draft version)
Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (US House of Representatives) (final version)
Department of Defense (DoD) Report on Taiwanese Security, 1999
Lee Teng-huiís 2 state theory (July 1999)
State Council Information Office, "The One China Principle and The Taiwan Issue (February 2000)
Chen Shuibian Inaugural Speech (May 2000)
Recommended
David A. Schlapak et al, Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for US Policy (RAND Corporation 2000) (each chapter is a separate pdf file)
Michael Swaine, Taiwanís National Security, Defense Policy, and Weapons Procurement Processes (RAND Corporation, 1999)
Federation of American Scientists archive on 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis
Harlan Jencks, "Wild Speculations on the Military Balance in the Taiwan Strait" in James Lilley and Chuck Downs eds., Crisis in the Taiwan Strait (1997)
Thomas J. Christensen, "Theater Missile Defense and Taiwan's Security" Orbis (Winter 2000) pp.79-90.
News reports and analysis of TMD issue: http://www.taiwansecurity.org/TSR-TMD.htm
Taiwan's
Mainland Affairs Council webpage
Week 6 (March 18) Security issues
III: Korea and Japan
The Chinese government is increasingly
worried that US alliances in the Asia-Pacific are aimed, ultimately, at
containing China. This week we will consider the areas of restrained cooperation
(the North Korean problem) and growing conflict (the US alliance with Japan)
between the two sides. Is there a security dilemma emerging in the region?
Required
Yang Bojiang, "Why US-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Alliance?" Contemporary International Relations 6:5 (May 1996) (CP)
DoD East Asia Strategy Report (1998) (read sections 1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 6.0, 6.1,6.2)
US-Japan
Defense Guidelines Interim Report
Recommended
Victor Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The US-Korea-Japan Security Triangle. (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1999)
Jonathan
Pollack and Chung Min Lee
Preparing for Korean Unification: Scenarios
and Implications (RAND Corporation, 1999) (each chapter is a separate
pdf document) (read chapters 1-7)
Week 7 (April 1) Security Issues
IV : Proliferation, Polarity, and Power: Is A Rising Chinese dangerous?
How different or similar are Chinese
and American views of changing Chinese military power? There appear to
be a number of areas of potential cooperation on global arms control issues.
Yet, with claims about Chinese theft of US nuclear and missile technology
dominating the discourse in Washington, there are many people (on both
sides) who believe that both states hold fundamentally different views
of how global order ought to be constructed. What does the evidence suggest?
Required
Shirley Kan, "Chinaís Technology Acquisitions: Cox Committeeís Report -- Findings, Issues and Recommendations" Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, June 8, 1999 (CP)
Michael May, ed, The Cox Report: An Assessment (Stanford, Center for International Security and Cooperation, 1999) (read pp. 9-19 and skim the rest of the document) (WP)
Michael Pillsbury, Asia 2020:The Future Asian Security Environment (Paper for the Office of Net Assessment, Department of Defense, September 1993) pp. 1-48. (CP)
Michael Pillsbury, China Debates the Future Security Environment (Washington, National Defense University Press, 2000) (chapters 1 and 5)
Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro "The coming conflict with America." Foreign Affairs March-April 1997, 76:2, pp.18-32 (CP)
Robert S. Ross, "Beijing as a conservative power." Foreign Affairs (March-April 1997), 76:2, pp.33-45 (CP)
US-PRC agreement on South Asia
US-PRC
agreement on biological weapons
Recommended
Michael Pillsbury ed., Chinese Views of Future Warfare (Washington, National Defense University Press, 1997)
Yan Xuetong "Chinaís Post-Cold War Security Strategy" Contemporary International Relations 5:5 (Feb 1996) (CP)
Deng Yong, "Conception of National Interests: Realpolitik, Liberal Dilemma and the Possibility of Change" in Yong Deng and Wang Fei-ling, In the Eyes of the Dragon (1999), pp. 47-72
Shirley A. Kan, "China: Possible Missile Technology Transfers from US Satellite Export Policy" CRS Report for Congress (Congressional Research Service, July 6, 1999)
State Council Information Office, "Refutation of the Cox Report" (July 15, 1999)
Project on Defense Alternatives webpage on Chinese military power
The Cox Report (see the
Cox Report Page)
Week 8: (April 8) Economic Issues
This week's readings examine economic
conflict and cooperation in the relationship. The focal point of this conflict
-- the issue where the pros and cons of economic engagement come together
-- concerns China's entry into the World Trade Organization. Some would
argue that trade and investment issues are now more central to the 'national
interest' than security issues. If so, what are the implications for Sino-US
relations? Can economic and security questions be compartmentalized?
Required
Margaret Pearson, "The Major Multilateral Economic Institutions Engage China" in Johnston and Ross, Engaging China pp.207-234 (CP)
Nicholas Lardy, "China and the International Financial System" in Economy and Oksenberg, China Joins the World, pp.206-230 (CP)
Fred Tipson. "China and the Information Revolution" in Economy and Oksenberg, China Joins the World, pp.231-265 (CP)
Barry Naughton, "The United States and China: Management of Economic Conflict," in Robert S. Ross, After the Cold War: Domestic Factors and US-China Relations (1998), pp. 148-184. (CP)
US-China
Agricultural Agreements
Recommended
US-China Business Council webpage on the WTO
American Chamber of Commerce (Beijing) position papers on the WTO
Greg Mastel, "A New US Trade Policy Toward China" Washington Quarterly 19:1 (1995)
Frederick M. Abbott, "Reflection Paper on China in the World Trading System: Defining the Principles of Engagement" in Frederick M. Abbott ed., China in the World Trading System: Defining the Principles of Engagement (1998)
Richard
Eglin, "Challenges and Implications of China Joining the WTO"
Week 9 (April 15) Human Rights
Critics of US engagement policy
argue that it has done nothing to improve human rights conditions in China,
and that human rights questions have been subordinated to trade opportunities
in China. The Chinese government thinks otherwise, arguing at times that
the US has used human rights questions to undermine political and social
stability in China. China has developed a counter-discourse that focuses
on the importance of the right to development, non-interference in the
internal affairs of states, and cultural relativism. How central is the
human rights issue to the relationship relative, say, to conflicts over
Taiwan, Chinese military power, or US alliances in Asia?
Required
Andrew Nathan, "China and the International Human Rights Regime" in Economy and Oksenberg eds., China Joins the World pp.136-160
Ming Wan, "Human Rights and Democracy" in Yong Deng and Wang Fei-ling, In the Eyes of the Dragon (1999), pp 97-117 (CP)
2000 US State Department Country Reports on Human Rights Practices -- China
Wang Zaibang and Qiu Guirong, "Human Rights Challenges Facing the World" Contemporary International Relations 8:11 (November 1998) (CP)
"Progress
in Chinaís Human Rights Cause in 2000" (PRC Government document)
Recommended
Ann Kent, China, the United Nations, and Human Rights: The Limits of Compliance (1999)
Andrew J. Nathan "Human Rights in Chinese Foreign Policy" The China Quarterly 139 (September 1994) 622-643.
Hungdah Chiu "Chinese Attitudes Towards International Law on Human Rights in Post Mao China." Occasional Papers in Contemporary Asian Studies. No.1--1988
Chen Jie, "Human Rights: ASEAN's
New Importance to China." Pacific Review. 6:3 (1993) 227-237 (CP)
Week 10 (April 22) "Non-traditional
Security"
If one were to look only at traditional
security questions (military power, arms control, territorial integrity
issues) there are clearly some serious disputes between Washington and
Beijing. But there are a growing number of transnational or global issues
that require cross-national cooperation for any one state to benefit. These
issues have direct and indirect impacts on the economic and political welfare
of people across states. How important are these non-traditional security
issues, (e.g. transborder environmental issues, transnational crime, terrorism)
in Sino-US relations? What determines their importance?
Required
Jonathan Pollack et al, "China and the Terror War" Newport Papers No.12 (January 2002)
State Council Information Office statement on Xinjiang terrorism (January 21, 2002)
Michael McElroy and Chris Nielsen, "Energy, Agiculture and Environment" in Ezra Vogel, ed., Living with China (CP)
Elizabeth Economy, "Chinaís Environmental Diplomacy" in Samuel S. Kim ed., China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faces the New Millenium (1998) pp.263-283 (CP)
US-PRC cooperation on illegal drugs
Week 11 (April 29) Summary: Future
Trajectories
This week will summarize the evidence
through the theoretical lenses introduced at the beginning of the semester.
Are there a sufficient number of shared interests such that the more dire
predictions of conflict coming from power transition arguments are perhaps
exaggerated? Has economic development and integration ameliorated some
of the potential conflicts in traditional and non-traditional security
issues? Is there evidence of socialization such that analogies to historical
examples of rising power (e.g. late 19th century Germany, early 20th century
Japan) are useless?
Required
Zalmay M. Khalilzad et al, The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications (RAND 1999) (each chapter is a separate pdf document)
David Shambaugh, "The Future of Chinaís Foreign Relations and Security Posture, 2000-2005" in Chinaís Future: Implications for US Interests: Conference Report (National Intelligence Council/Federal Research Division, September 24, 1999) pp.85-102 (look under "Conference Reports", then "1999", then "China's Future")
Chinese assessments of Sino-US relations
trajectory (all in (CP))
Chu Shulong
"Sino-US Relations: The Necessity for Change and a New Strategy" Contemporary
International Relations 6:11 (November 1996)
Xi Laiwang,
"Toward a 21st Century-Oriented Sino-US Strategic Partnership" Contemporary
International Relations 7:11 (November 1997)
Chu Shulong,
"America and China" Cooperation, Conflicts and Strategy" Contemporary
International Relations 8:6 (June 1998)
Ding Kuisong
and Niu Xinchun, "Sino-US Relations: A Bumpy Path of Exploring Cooperation"
" Contemporary International Relations 9:1 (January 1999)
Yan Xuetong,
"Conditions for China-US Strategic Cooperation" " Contemporary International
Relations 9:7 (July 1999) (especially the "Lessons" pp.24-26)
