Capitalism,

Democracy,

and

Welfare

The Changing Nature of Production,

Elections, and Social Protection in Modern Capitalism

List of Contents

Chapter One: A political Economy Approach to the Welfare State

Chapter Two: A Brief Analytical History of Modern Welfare Production Regimes

Part II: Political Foundations of Social Policy

Chapter Three: Explaining Individual Social Policy Preferences

Chapter Four: Social Protection and Elections

Part III: Forces of Change

Chapter Five: Coping with Risk: The Expansion of Social Protection

Chapter Six: New Tradeoffs, New Policies: Challenges of the Service Economy

Bibliography

List of Tables

Table 1.2. Electoral system and the number of years with left and right governments (1945-98)^.

Table 2.1. Structural pre-conditions for economic policies and institutions, ca. 1950.

Table 2.2. Employment protection in 18 OECD countries.

Table 2.3. Unemployment protection in 18 OECD countries.

Table 2.4. Income protection in 18 OECD countries (1973-95).

Table 2.5. Percentage of population over 25 with a post-secondary education.

Table 2.7. Scientific citation rates and low-wage service employment in 18 OECD countries.

Table 2.8. Unemployment in selected countries, 1950-96

Table 2.9. Average annual rates of growth in total factor productivity for 14 OECD countries, 1970-94.

Table 3.1. Summary of Independent Skill Variables.

Table 3.2. Support for social spending among the publics of 10 OECD countries, 1996 (standard errors in parentheses).

Table 3.3. Estimates of the magnitude of the Effects of independent variables.

Table 3.4. Support for spending in four areas of social protection (standard errors in parentheses).

Table 3.5. Gender effects on preferences, income and skills (Standard Errors in Parentheses).

Table 3.6. Income, skills, and support for social spending in 11 OECD countries (t-scores in parentheses).

Table 3.7. Formal education and support for two types of spending in 10 OECD countries, 1996 (t-Scores in parentheses)

Table 4.1. The determinants of vocational training activity in 18 OECD countries, 1980-95 (t-scores in parentheses).

Table 4.2. Regression results for reduction in inequality (standard errors in parentheses).

Table 4.3. Key indicators of party and electoral systems.

Table 4.4. Electoral system and the number of years with governments farther to the left or to the right than the legislature (1945-98).

Table 4.5. Regression results for government partisanship, 1950-96 (standard errors in parentheses).

Table A4.1. Electoral systems and incentives of politicians to campaign on the party platform.

Table A4.2. Political Institutions and capacity for commitment.

Table A4.3. Country means for variables used in regression analysis.

Table A4.4. Correlation matrix.

Table 5.1. Regression results for government spending (t-scores in parentheses).

Table 5.2. Common shocks, national institutions, and government spending (standard errors in parentheses).

Table 5.3. Shocks and spending in two sub-periods.

Table 5.4. Deindustrialization, national institutions, and government spending (standard errors in parentheses).

Table 5.5. Deindustrialization, partisanship, and government spending (standard errors in parentheses).

Table 5.6. Regression Results for Industrialization (t-scores in parentheses).

Table 6.1. Real exchange rates for 18 OECD countries, 1973-1997.

Table 6.2. Productivity, relative earnings, labor shares, and employment in four sectors.

Table 6.3. The bivariate relationship between dispersion of earnings and employment growth in three service sectors.

Table 6.4. The determinants of private service sector employment growth.

Table 6.5. The effect of earnings dispersion under different model specifications.

Table 6.6. The effect of taxation under different model specifications.

Table 6.7. Replication of regression results using d5/d1 ratios.

Table 6.8. Wage equality, service employment, and institutions in eight OECD countries, 1970-96. (% of adult population).

Table 6.9. Employment and unemployment in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Europe 1990-99.

Table 6.10. The volume of work in 12 OECD countries, 1990-99.

Table 6.11. Part-time employment 12 OECD countries, 1990-99.

List of Figures

Figure 1.2. The percentage of adults with poor literacy scores (bottom scale), and the percentage of adults with low education and high scores (top scale). 13 OECD countries, 1994-98.

Figure 1.3. Redistribution as a function of taxes and transfers in 14 democracies.

Figure 1.4. Taxes and transfers as a function of vocational training activity.

Figure 1.5. Skill specificity and occupational gender segregation.

Figure 2.1. Social protection and skill profiles.

Figure 2.2. Unemployment replacement rates, 1973-95.

Figure 2.3. The (un)employment gap between continental Europe and the United States.

Figure 2.4. The employment gap between continental Europe and the United States, by sector.

Figure 3.1. The three states of an individual in the labor market.

Figure 3.2. Four models of social policy preferences.

Figure 4.1. The relationship between institutionization of the party system, vocational training intensity, and government spending.

Figure A4.1. The indifference curves for L and H and the empty LH win-set of m*.

Figure A4.2. The structure of the coalition game^.

Figure 5.1. Spending, trade and deindustrialization in 17 OECD countries, 1952-1995.

Figure 5.2. Support for redistribution as a function of risk

Figure 5.3. Support for redistribution as a function of shocks to income

Figure 5.4. Deindustrialization and change in welfare spending for 16 OECD countries, 1960-93.

Figure 5.4. Trade Openness and Losses in Traditional Sectors

Figure 5.5. Initial Size and Losses in Traditional Sectors

Figure 5.6. Convergence towards the service economy, 1960-1995.

Figure 6.1. Wage dispersion and average currency overvaluation, 1993-1997.

Figure 6.2. Wage dispersion and the relative price of Big Macs, 1988-2000.

Figure 6.3. Dispersion of earnings and employment growth in four economic sectors.

Figure 6.4. The service economy trilemma.

Figure 6.5. Stringency of employment regulation for regular full-time employment, 1980s vs. 1990s.

Figure 6.6. Stringency of employment regulation for temporary and part-time employment, 1980s vs. 1990s.

Figure 6.7. Relative wages in the Netherlands, 1980-95.