Will Dobbie - Research

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Published/Forthcoming Papers

Are High-Quality Schools Enough to Increase Achievement Among the Poor? Evidence from the Harlem Children's Zone with Roland Fryer, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3(3): 158-87, 2011.

Abstract: Harlem Children's Zone (HCZ), which combines community programs with "No Excuses" charter schools, is one of the most ambitious social experiments to alleviate poverty of our time. We provide the first empirical test of the causal impact of attending the Promise Academy charter schools in HCZ on educational outcomes, with an eye towards informing the long-standing debate on whether schools alone can eliminate the achievement gap or whether the issues that poor children bring to school are too much for educators alone to overcome. Both lottery and instrumental variable identification strategies suggest that the effects of attending the Promise Academy middle school are enough to close the black-white achievement gap in mathematics. The effects in elementary school are large enough to close the racial achievement gap in both mathematics and English Language Arts. We conclude by presenting two pieces of evidence that suggest high-quality schools are enough to significantly increase academic achievement among the poor. Community programs appear neither necessary nor sufficient.

Working Papers

The Impact of Consumer Bankruptcy Protection, April 2012 with Jae Song

Abstract: Consumer bankruptcy is one of the largest social insurance programs in the United States. Nearly 1.5 million Americans file for bankruptcy protection each year, resulting in annual transfers of more than $50 billion. This paper provides the first causal estimate of consumer bankruptcy protection on debtors, using information from nearly 5 million bankruptcy filings and administrative data from the Social Security Administration. We estimate the impact of bankruptcy protection using the random assignment of bankruptcy filings to judges with different allowance rates. We find that bankruptcy protection significantly increases an individual's earnings, decreases Supplemental Security Income and Disability Insurance receipt, and decreases mortality.


Getting Beneath the Veil of Effective Schools: Evidence from New York City with Roland Fryer, November 2011 (Data Appendix)

Abstract: Charter schools were developed, in part, to serve as an R&D engine for traditional public schools, resulting in a wide variety of school strategies and outcomes. In this paper, we collect unparalleled data on the inner-workings of 35 charter schools and correlate these data with credible estimates of each school's effectiveness. We find that traditionally collected input measures - class size, per pupil expenditure, the fraction of teachers with no certification, and the fraction of teachers with an advanced degree - are not correlated with school effectiveness. In stark contrast, we show that an index of five policies suggested by over forty years of qualitative research - frequent teacher feedback, the use of data to guide instruction, high-dosage tutoring, increased instructional time, and high expectations - explains approximately 50 percent of the variation in school effectiveness. Our results are robust to controls for three alternative theories of schooling: a model emphasizing the provision of wrap-around services, a model focused on teacher selection and retention, and the "No Excuses" model of education. We conclude by showing that our index provides similar results in a separate sample of charter schools.


The Impact of Voluntary Youth Service on Future Outcomes: Evidence from Teach For America with Roland Fryer, September 2011

Abstract: Nearly one million American youth have participated in service programs such as Peace Corps and Teach For America. This paper provides the first causal estimate of the impact of service programs on those who serve, using data from a web-based survey of former Teach For America applicants. We estimate the effect of voluntary youth service using a sharp discontinuity in the Teach For America application process. Participating in Teach For America increases racial tolerance, makes individuals more optimistic about the life chances of poor children, and makes them more likely to work in education. We argue that these facts are broadly consistent with the "Contact Hypothesis," which states that, under appropriate conditions, interpersonal contact can reduce prejudice.


Exam High Schools and Academic Achievement: Evidence from New York City with Roland Fryer, July 2011

Abstract: Publicly funded exam schools educate many of the world's most talented students. These schools typically contain higher achieving peers, more rigorous instruction, and additional resources compared to regular public schools. This paper uses a sharp discontinuity in the admissions process at three prominent exam schools in New York City to provide the first causal estimate of the impact of attending an exam school in the United States on longer term academic outcomes. Attending an exam school increases the rigor of high school courses taken and the probability that a student graduates with an advanced high school degree. Surprisingly, however, attending an exam school has little impact on Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, college enrollment, or college graduation - casting doubt on their ultimate long term impact.


Teacher Characteristics and Student Achievement: Evidence from Teach For America, July 2011

Abstract: There is considerable variance in the productivity of teachers, yet educators have been unable to identify observable characteristics related to teacher effectiveness. This paper uses data from Teach for America admissions records to explore whether information collected at the time of hire can predict student outcomes. We find that a teacher's prior achievement, leadership experience, and perseverance are associated with student gains in math. Leadership experience and commitment to the TFA mission are associated with gains in English. The TFA admissions measures are also associated with improved classroom behavior. These results suggest that teacher success can be predicted at the time of hire.


Information Asymmetries in Consumer Credit Markets: Evidence from Payday Lending with Paige Marta Skiba, January 2011, revise and resubmit at American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Abstract: Information asymmetries are prominent in theory but difficult to estimate. This paper presents a new empirical test for moral hazard and adverse selection that exploits sharp discontinuities in payday loan eligibility. We find no evidence of moral hazard in the payday loan market. If anything, an increase in loan size lowers the probability that a borrower defaults. On the other hand, we find economically and statistically significant adverse selection into larger loans. Borrowers who choose a $50 larger payday loan are 7.5 to 9.0 percentage points more likely to default, a 46 to 52 percent increase.


Rules and Discretion in the Evaluation of Students and Schools: The Case of the New York Regents Examinations with Thomas Dee, Brian Jacob, and Jonah Rockoff

Abstract: The challenge of designing effective performance measurement and incentives is a general one in economic settings where behavior and outcomes are not easily observable. These issues are particularly prominent in education where, over the last two decades, test-based accountability systems for schools and students have proliferated. In this study, we present evidence that the design and decentralized, school-based scoring of New York's high-stakes Regents Examinations have led to pervasive manipulation of student test scores that are just below performance thresholds. Specifically, we document statistically significant discontinuities in the distributions of subject-specific Regent scores that align with the cut scores used to determine both student eligibility to graduate and school accountability. Our results suggest that roughly 3 to 5 percent of the exam scores that qualified for a high school diploma actually had performance below the state requirements. Using multiple sources of data, we present evidence that score manipulation is driven by local teachers' desire to help their students avoid sanctions associated with failure to meet exam standards, not the recent creation of school accountability systems. We also provide some evidence that variation in the extent of manipulation across schools tends to favor traditionally disadvantaged student groups.

Work in Progress
Information and Parent Behavior: Evidence from a Large Scale Field Experiment
The Impact of Household Bankruptcy on Children
The Long Term Impact of the Harlem Children's Zone with Roland Fryer

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